An alternate history exercise: Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union and declaration of war on the United States (after the Japanese Empire attacked Pearl Harbor) were two of the largest and costliest mistakes for Nazi Germany. But what if they took a more responsible route? What if they didn’t invade the Soviet Union and instead opted for a campaign against the British in Africa and the Middle East?
1) Without German scientists, the Manhattan Project is delayed by a few months.
2) Germany does not declare war on America. The American public is still against a war in Europe meaning all resources are going to war with Japan, accelerating progress in Indonesia.
3) Atomic bomb was dropped on Kokura because that was the original target. Poor weather in Kokura forced the bomb to be dropped on Nagasaki (the secondary target).
4) A stronger Germany in 1945 supported Japan much better (as seen with the Luftwaffe deployment in Japan) with raw materials to prevent a Japanese surrender after the atomic bombings.
5) In this scenario, German forces capture oil fields in the Caucasus within days or a week or two crippling the Russian industrial machine. Coupled with long range strategic bombing by Germany’s newest bomber and V-4 rockets, the Russian ability to fight is a fraction of what it was in real life.